Has Bullion lost its powers as a safe haven?

At the moment Gold’s sensitivity towards the US Sino matter is at its highest levels as the precious metal been very match the next best choice for traders during the past days. Massive volatility has been observed and especially yesterday and the day before when the Chinese Index’s moved higher along with their stocks and on the opposite the US dollar seemed out of breathe for the moment.

Gold, now at cheaper levels since are very last report, seemed to suddenly wake up after a long sleep, as traders utilized it for quick trades and ultimately increased volatility levels. Gold prices settled slightly higher Wednesday, locking its second day in positive territory as the U.S. dollar and U.S. government bond yields both backed down, giving space for the precious metal to climb.

On a wider perspective, investors demand for Gold was down in the second quarter. Holdings in global gold-backed ETFs dropped in July and Gold price performance was a large contributor to outflows as it fell over 2% in US dollar terms.

Moreover, the Fed’s plans to raise rates further this year have also assisted in plunging the shiny metals prices as the fact is known to strengthen the USD. The USD is negatively correlated to Gold and an advancement for the greenback equals a reverse for the precious metal. The greenback has been strengthening since late April were Gold started heading downwards breaking its $1,300 round level and now aiming for the $1,200 level.

Evidently, towards the end of July, money managers increase their net short positions bringing them to 41,087 contracts, the largest since data has become available to the public in 2006. It could be the case that, Gold has not reached rocked bottom yet.

On the other hand, countries with depreciating currencies like the Chinese Yuan and the Iranian Rial have increased their investments in Gold. Their aim could be to increase demand for gold while a weakening currency seems to prevail. However, in our opinion someone could also rely on long-term gold investment in order to escape complete devaluation in a desperate situation.

On another front, a very significant development has been enacted that is related to the banking system. According to Basel III regulations, banks are required to match cash holdings with proportional Gold reserves to protect itself from any strong price movements. The percentage of the matching until now, has been 85%. However, the percentage has now been set lower to 50%. According to Reuters, LBMA the London Bullion Market Association has been able to convince the European Union to ease the Gold requirements and plans to keep going for even lower levels, as a way to reduce costs for banks. This developments creates some questionable points for analysts and market participants. Since banks are now allowing less exposure to be hedged on Gold, we can reasonably question the metals traditional power and dominance as a safe haven. Is this a new era we are moving into, were gold is turning into an ordinary financial instrument?

Gold rallied in yesterday’s US session gaining some 4 dollars on an upward movement after it had been lower in the European morning session when it was trading under the $1,210 psychological threshold. Golds upswing could continue today as traders may use it as a hedge instrument for any further economic uncertainty. If the precious metal is undertaken by a bullish movement we could see it move higher aiming for the $1,216.37 resistance level and remain nearby that price. Technically, the RSI indicator in the 1 hour chart remains near the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market. Should traders favor Gold short positions, we could see the shiny metal moving lower breaking the $1,210.27 support level and aim for the $1,207.33 support barrier. Also Gold could remain on a sideways movements between the $1,216.37 resistance line and the $1,210.27 Support level.

Trade war between USA and China still continues!

China does not give up so she included additional tariffs of 25% on U.S goods (with worth of $16 billion). On 23rd August 2018, we can see actions from both sides. USA will collect additional 25% tariffs and China will add new tariffs.

We also notice that trade war between China and USA affected on gold and the use of other metals. Gold gained four dollars on a upward movement (on US session) and it was trading under the 1,210 psychological threshold (on European session). Upswing of gold could also continue today because traders may use it as a hedge instrument. If we see bullish movement it will cause to see it move higher aiming for the 1216.37 resistance level and remain close that price. Favoring of gold short positions, can bring the metal moving lower breaking the 1210.27 support level and make aim for the 1207.33 support barrier. Gold could remain between the 1216.37 resistance line and the 1210.27 support level.

Gold caught in a downfall

Gold prices plunged to a new six-month low on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, making the precious metal more expensive for buyers of other currencies. Gold prices have lost more than 3 percent just in June, which is the biggest monthly decrease since September 2017. Analysts consider that the reason behind golds weakening, is the US dollar strengthening and the latest developments in the US trade relationships, which is currently acting unilaterally. The US government is currently making various amendments to its corporate acquisitions regulations and this is giving bullion a hard time.

On Wednesday, US officials stated that they are willing to back down on imposing new 25% limits on Chinese ownership in U.S. tech companies, as news had suggested in previous days. In its place, the government would depend on the newly strengthened Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to handle the matter. The specific issue between the US and China’s ongoing turmoil has not benefited the precious metal at all recently with traders giving up their long positions on the bullion. In the meantime, the scenario of Gold being plunged by some capitulation of investors, instead of being predominantly motivated by the dollar could be in display. A double confirmation of the pre-mentioned scenario is the fact that Gold-backed exchange-traded funds are currently going through their worst month since last summer, according to Thomson Reuters.

Gold which is said to be used as a safe haven during times of geopolitical uncertainty, is not the most attractive financial instrument and is somewhat dampened at the moment. It could be said that, market participants are now turning towards U.S. Treasuries which are also interest rate related and are viewed as a gain opportunity for the coming months. It is believed that Gold will remain on the selling trend until there is a distinct reverse of the current sentiment for the US dollar.

Most notably, a recent study showed total demand for gold has been down as it fell 7 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to last year. Analysts site a drop in private investment demand which consequently, hurt gold prices significantly. However, some central banks and primarily those of gold backed deposits have increase their holdings in bullion, indicating a long term faith in the precious metal. More specifically, Turkey as well as Russia are 2 very good examples of countries with central banks that have gradually increased their holding in gold and have decreased their US related investments. Investors have traditionally been purchasing gold in order to protect their interest over certain economic conditions. The most rational reason could be named as higher inflation which automatically motivates utilization of the shiny metal.
As a conclusion, we strongly believe investor’s interest in gold has been on the low for some time and the case for investors to have completely disregarded it as a safe heaven is very evident lately. This negative outlook could reverse once market participants see the shiny metal start to appreciate. We would like to warn traders to be on the watch out, as we have seen huge financial institutions making unrealistic forecasts and deceiving the market in general. Investors should make their own decisions on Golds direction.