Germany’s interior minister said that good progress has been made towards an agreement with Italy, regarding the migration issue. It happened after Italy threatened to veto the EU budget. Earlier this month, there were agreements with Spain and Greece, and we can expect to see maybe similar agreement with Italy too! Also, there is possible progress to ease tensions within the EU, especially with Italy.
EUR/USD rose breaking the 1.1675 resistance line and continued to struggle with the level (Asian session). As the upward trend-line remains intact we maintain our bullish bias, however bearish tendencies and some corrections may occur as the US dollar strengthens due to the developments on the NAFTA issue.
We could see it breaking the 1.1675 resistance line and aim for the 1.1740 resistance level. On the other side, if the pair come under selling interest we could see it reaching out or even break the 1.1623 support line.
The US dollar remained soft during the last week. And also during Asian session. Regardless Powell’s speech, and his defending of the Fed’s current policy to raise interest rates ignoring president Trump’s recent criticism, US dollar remained soft. After Powell’s movements there should be expected a more hawkish signal. We could see the US dollar weakening.
EUR/USD rose on last week testing the 1.1623 resistance line, now turned to support and broke it (during the Asian session). The pair seems to be struggling with the prementioned support line and the upward trend line. We could see it reaching out for the 1.1675 resistance line and even breaching it. On the other side, we could see the pair breaking the 1.1623 support line and aim if not breach the 1.1537 support level.
After two days, US-Sino trade negotiations is finished and it looks like there wont be any main breakthrough. We can expect a new round of US tariffs for about $16 billion of Chinese products.
Fed’s Chairman Powell will speak and we can expect of him to defend the Fed’s current rate hike path. The speech’s title is to be “Monetary Policy in a changing economy”. This even could effectively raise the US dollar’s value with adverse effects. On Powell’s speak we can also expect the low unemployment as well as the accelerating inflation and GDP growth rates in order to argue for the economic situation. Also, we can expect comments about the international trading relationships and their effects on the US economy.
EUR/USD moved sideways with some bearish tendencies, testing the 1.1537 support line. If the pair come under selling interest we could see it breaking the 1.1537 support line and aim for the 1.1482 support barrier. On the other side, we could see it rising and aiming if not breaking the 1.1623 resistance line.