gbp Archives - Profit Forex Signals

August 12, 2018

PFXS news for week ahead

Since we do not expect any major releases during Monday, let’s immediately talk about highlights on Tuesday.

Tuesday – China is to release its Industrial Production which is expected to accelerate to +6.3% from previous reading of +6.0%. Also, we get China’s Retail Sales growth rate forecasted to remain on hold at +9.0%. As we already know, China announced new tariffs on US products and tripled its products. On other side, on European morning, we can expect the German GDP expected to move higher to +2.6% since previous +1.6%. We can also get the German CPI rate forecasted to remain on hold at +0.3%. Then we get the UK’s Unemployment rate for June who is expected to remain on hold at +4.2%. This highlight can affect to create volatility for GBP pairs. British Pound has weakened because of Brexit events and if this “No Brexit Deal” is confirmed we can expect GBP dropping even further. From the Euro-zone we can get the German ZEW Economic sentiment expected to drop from previous read of -24.7 to -19.1. (This happening can be very important and good news for EUR).

Wednesday – We get Australia’s Wage Price Index. The figure is forecasted to advance to +0.6% from previous +0.5% (Asian session). If this news happens, we could see the AUD and NZD strengthening. The main reasons behind a possible strengthening of the Aussie and the Kiwi, would be Australia’s wage growth continues to be low and stable across most industries in Australia. In statement in August 2018 we see a possible strengthening of the Aussie and the Kiwi, would be Australia’s wage growth continues to be low and stable across most industries in Australia. The UK Inflation data is to be released. The CPI figure is forecasted to increase from previous +2.4% to 2.5% (European session). The monthly figure is forecasted to drop to -0.1% from previous +0.4%. Also, we get the American Core Retail sales and the Retail sales both for July. The Core Retail sales are expected to remain on hold at +0.4%, and the Retail sales are expected to decelerate to +0.3% (US session). If the outcome is released as forecasted we could see a weakening of the USD. On the other side, we get UK Retail Sales which are expected to accelerate to +0.2% from previous reading of -0.5% (European session).

Thursday – We get Australia’s Unemployment Rate. The rate is widely expected to remain At +5.4% (Asian session). After that, we get the US Housing Starts for July. The indicator is expected to increase to 1.250 M (American session). The USD seemed to regaining some strength it lost at the beginning of the week. USD is superior over emerging market currencies! (Even we have actual trade war).

Friday – We can get Canadian Core CPI rate for July. Expected level is 0.1%.

August 10, 2018

Other economic highlights for today (8/10/2018)

We get Turkeys Current Account Balance for June. The Turkish lira fell heavily to yet another record low against the USD. The ECB was worried on exposure of EU banks in Turkey.

When we talk about the UK GDP preliminaries Figures for Quarter two forecasted to advance and could create support for the GBP along with the Manufacturing Production.

We also get the US inflation data for July with the Core CPI forecasted to remain on hold and Canada’s Employment Data for July.

July 23, 2018

PFXS news for week ahead (July 23rd -27th)

On Monday, in the American session we get the Canadian Whole Sale Sales for May. The previous reading release in June was at 0.1%. Any reading above that figure should be taken as good news for the CAD while on the opposite any reading below could be taken as negative and could hurt the Loonie. Later in the American session we get US Existing Home Sales for June. The rate is forecasted to increase and reach 5.44 M compared to previous reading of 5.43 M while the Existing Home Sales are expected to increase to +0.5% mom from previous reading of -0.4% mom.

Should the actual rates meet the forecast we could see the USD caught in mixed financial data, as it would indicate the monthly rate increased but the overall reading has a minor decrease in home sales for June. Please be advised that Existing Home Sales are a very important indication of a healthy economic outlook.

On Tuesday, we get a number of PMI’s from Asia and Europe. Early in the Asian session, the Japanese Manufacturing PMI for July is to be released. The rate has no forecast at the moment, however, the previous reading was at 53.0. A higher figure than the one previously released could be taken as positive for the JPY.

In the European session we get Germany’s, France’s and Euro-zone’s preliminary PMI’s for July. Please note all European PMI’s are set to drop and should the actual readings meet the forecast we could see the common currency weakening as such readings could be regarded as a continuation of Euro-zone’s lukewarm to negative financial indicators. Please note, on the same day the EU Finance Ministers Meeting will take place but the start time is undisclosed.

On Wednesday, in the Asian session we get Australia’s inflation data for June. The quarterly CPI rate is forecasted to accelerate and reach +0.5% yoy compared to previous reading of +0.4% yoy as well as the yearly CPI rate which is forecasted to reach +2.2% yoy compared to previous reading of +1.9% yoy.

Should the actual rates meet the forecasts we could see the Aussie strengthening. We would also like to stress the fact that in the previous week Australian labour market report came out impressively strong for June. It was noted that with the labour supply still growing, less upward pressure was applied on wages and inflation so Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to rate hike anytime soon.

In the European session we get German Ifo Business Climate Index for June. The rate is forecasted to drop at 101.5 from previous release 101.8. Should the actual rates meet the forecast we could see the common currency weakening somewhat, though it must be noted that due to the small decrease the market could perceive it as a muted event. However, any greater reading both negative and positive could create volatility for the EUR.

In the US session we get the US New Home Sales rate for June. The US New Home Sales rate is forecasted to drop and reach 0.670 M compared to previous reading of 0.689 M. Should the outcome be the same with the forecast, the greenback could weaken. However, the difference is not so significant, so the reaction could be rather minor.

On Thursday, in the European session, ECB will announce its interest rate decision. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold at 0.00%, as EUR OIS imply a probability for the bank to remain on hold at 97.61%. If the interest rate decision comes out as expected, we could see the market’s attention shifting to the accompanying statement and the following press conference. Should there be any signs of the bank starting to unwind its QE program as suggested by ECB officials previously, we could see the common currency gaining ground. Please be advised that the interest rate decision and the following press conference may leverage volatility on EUR crosses. It is expected that the asset purchases could end this year, as announced, and the market doesn’t expect an update on the policy path until March.

In the US session, we get the US New Home Sales for June. The forecast implies in increase to +2.5% from a previous count of -0.4%. Please be advised the USD could strengthen on the release of the news, should the forecast be realized.

On Friday, early in the European session we get UK’s Nationwide HPI readings for July. The UK’s yearly Nationwide HPI rate previous reading of +2.0 % yoy while the monthly Nationwide HPI headline CPI rate’s last reading was +0.5% mom.

Should the release exceed the previous readings, we may see the GBP gaining some momentum. However, most of the attention in the UK is placed on the Brexit as it is turning out to be a very difficult topic to deal with. The UK remains divided on how the matter should be dealt with and so Cable has been kept down lately.

In the American session we get the US GDP rate for July. This is the most significant event for the day and the US GDP rate is forecasted to accelerate to +4.1% qoq compared to previous reading of +2.0% qoq. Should the headline rate’s actual reading meet the forecast and the US GDP rate accelerate as well, we could see the greenback getting some support. In addition and regarding the US, during the past week Powell said the Fed will continue to slowly raise interest rates for now’ in order to keep inflation near target amid a robust conditions in the U.S. labour market.