USD feeds on trade tensions

The USD strengthened against a number of currencies while remained stable against others yesterday. As per analysts, the USD is supported by trade tensions as the US economy seems to be in a better position to handle protectionism. However question-marks arise if US economy growth starts to slow down because of tariffs or due to a fading effect of past tax cuts. Media reports state that there is still a lot of uncertainty about tariffs and how bad it can get, however the issue may have started to lose steam. Should there be further headlines on tariffs we could see volatility rising.

EUR/USD remained relatively stable yesterday between the 1.1580 resistance line and the 1.1510 support line. Some bearish tendencies occurred as Germany’s industrial orders growth rate for June dropped more than expected but corrected later on and continued its sideways movement. Technically it should be noted that the pair has clearly broken the downward trend- line incepted since the peak of the 31st of July. Hence, we lift our bearish bias for a sideways movement. Should the pair’s direction be possessed by the bulls we could see the pair breaking the 1.1580 resistance line and aim for the 1.1640 resistance hurdle, while should the bears dictate the pairs’ direction we could see it breaking the 1.1510 support line and aim for the 1.1445 support barrier.

JPY weakening as BoJ announces changes in policy

JPY weakened as the BoJ pledged to keep interest rates very low, currently remaining on hold at -0.10%. The bank also intends to maintain a long term yield target around zero and to make its policy framework more flexible, reflecting the forecast that it would take time for inflation to reach its 2% target. However, the bank also added that long term interest rates may fluctuate depending on economic and price developments. USD/JPY rose on the news, reflecting the weakening of the JPY which could continue to set the mood for the near term.

USD/JPY rose and tested the 111.30 resistance line during today’s Asian session, however corrected somewhat quite quickly. We could see the pair having some bullish tendencies today as the financial releases could favor the USD side. It should be noted though that to remove our sideways bias, we would require a clear breaking of the 111.30 resistance line. Should the bulls take over the market we could see the pair breaking the 111.30 resistance line and aim for the 112.05 resistance level. Should the bears take over the market we could see the pair aiming if not breaking the 110.75 support line.

Other economic highlights for today (6/21/2018)

In the European session we get from Switzerland SNB’s interest rate decision. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold but still provide some volatility for CHF crosses.

USD/CHF rose yesterday and during today’s Asian session broke the 0.9963  resistance line. Despite that, the pair remained within the boundaries of its sideways movement between the 0.9990 resistance line and the 0.9932 support line. We see the case for the pair to continue to trade within those boundaries however with some bullish tendencies due to the SNB interest rate decision. On the other hand, should an extensive risk off sentiment materialize in the markets we could see the pair being driven by the bears, due to CHF’s dual nature as a safe haven. Should the bulls take over we could see the pair breaking the 0.9990 resistance level and aiming for the 1.0020 resistance hurdle. Should the bears be in the driver’s seat, we could see the pair breaking the 0.9963 support lines and aim for the 0.9932 support barrier.

Also in the European session we get from Norway’s Norges Bank interest rate decision and in the American session we get the US initial jobless claims as well as Philly Fed Business Index for June. Last but not least, we note the release of Euro-zone’s preliminary Consumer Confidence indicator for June.