PFXS news for week ahead

Since we do not expect any major releases during Monday, let’s immediately talk about highlights on Tuesday.

Tuesday – China is to release its Industrial Production which is expected to accelerate to +6.3% from previous reading of +6.0%. Also, we get China’s Retail Sales growth rate forecasted to remain on hold at +9.0%. As we already know, China announced new tariffs on US products and tripled its products. On other side, on European morning, we can expect the German GDP expected to move higher to +2.6% since previous +1.6%. We can also get the German CPI rate forecasted to remain on hold at +0.3%. Then we get the UK’s Unemployment rate for June who is expected to remain on hold at +4.2%. This highlight can affect to create volatility for GBP pairs. British Pound has weakened because of Brexit events and if this “No Brexit Deal” is confirmed we can expect GBP dropping even further. From the Euro-zone we can get the German ZEW Economic sentiment expected to drop from previous read of -24.7 to -19.1. (This happening can be very important and good news for EUR).

Wednesday – We get Australia’s Wage Price Index. The figure is forecasted to advance to +0.6% from previous +0.5% (Asian session). If this news happens, we could see the AUD and NZD strengthening. The main reasons behind a possible strengthening of the Aussie and the Kiwi, would be Australia’s wage growth continues to be low and stable across most industries in Australia. In statement in August 2018 we see a possible strengthening of the Aussie and the Kiwi, would be Australia’s wage growth continues to be low and stable across most industries in Australia. The UK Inflation data is to be released. The CPI figure is forecasted to increase from previous +2.4% to 2.5% (European session). The monthly figure is forecasted to drop to -0.1% from previous +0.4%. Also, we get the American Core Retail sales and the Retail sales both for July. The Core Retail sales are expected to remain on hold at +0.4%, and the Retail sales are expected to decelerate to +0.3% (US session). If the outcome is released as forecasted we could see a weakening of the USD. On the other side, we get UK Retail Sales which are expected to accelerate to +0.2% from previous reading of -0.5% (European session).

Thursday – We get Australia’s Unemployment Rate. The rate is widely expected to remain At +5.4% (Asian session). After that, we get the US Housing Starts for July. The indicator is expected to increase to 1.250 M (American session). The USD seemed to regaining some strength it lost at the beginning of the week. USD is superior over emerging market currencies! (Even we have actual trade war).

Friday – We can get Canadian Core CPI rate for July. Expected level is 0.1%.

RBNZ’s interest rate decision

On Thursday, early in the Asian session we get RBNZ’s interest rate decision. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold at +1.75% as currently NZD OIS imply a probability for such a scenario of 99.15% so the market’s attention could turn to the accompanying statement. With the inflation rate for Q2 accelerating to +1.5% yoy, unemployment remaining at rather low levels (4.5%) and no new release regarding the GDP growth rate, we could see chances for the bank’s next rate move to be a rate cut being reduced and the uncertainty of the relative remark slowly being removed. Should the bank have a more hawkish tone than in the previous decision we could see the Kiwi strengthening, while should it have a neutral to dovish tone, NZD could weaken or the meeting could pass as a non-event

NZD/USD jumped on today’s Inflation Expectations and moved higher breaking our 0.67584 resistance line and corrected lower later on. Should the bears dictate the pairs’ direction we could see it moving downwards to the 0.66873 support line and even breaking it. On the other hand if a bullish movement overtakes the pair we could see it break the 0.67584 resistance line and aim higher for the 0.67848 resistance barrier.

 

Other economic highlights for the rest of the week

In the European session we get Germany’s Industrial orders growth rate for June as well as UK’s Halifax House prices for July.

On Wednesday, China’s Trade Balance figure for July is due out, while on Thursday, during the Asian session RBNZ’s interest rate decision will be announced.

On a busy Friday, we get Japan’s and UK’s GDP growth rate for Q2, Canada’s employment data for July and the US inflation rates for July.