In the European session we get UK’s Nationwide HPI rate as well as the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI figure, both for July, while from the Euro-zone we get the final release of the Markit manufacturing PMI for July.
In the American session we get from the US the ADP National Employment figure and the ISM manufacturing PMI, both for July, while later on the EIA weekly crude oil inventories figure is to be released.
Late in the American session the FOMC is expected to announce its interest rate decision. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold and currently Feds Funds Futures imply a probability of 96.37% for that scenario. As the bank is expected to remain on hold, market focus may shift to the accompanying statement which may contain comments about the high inflation rate, the strong GDP growth rate and the low unemployment level. A number of analysts seek a clear message for the possible 2 future rate hikes in 2018, especially after recent comments made by US president Trump. A neutral to hawkish tone in the accompanying statement could support USD, while a neutral to dovish tone may weaken it.
EUR/USD continued its sideways movement yesterday testing the 1.1745 resistance line and correcting lower later on. The pair could experience some bearish tendencies today should the FOMC meeting favor the USD side. Should the bulls take over the market we could see the pair breaking the 1.1745 resistance line. On the other hand should the bears take over we could see the pair breaking the 1.1640 support line and aim for the 1.1580 support barrier.
In the European session we get Germany’s retail sales for June and unemployment data for July, France’s preliminary HICP rate for July as well as Euro-zone’s preliminary CPI rate for July and preliminary GDP growth rate for Q2.
In the American session, from the US we get the core PCE price index and the personal spending growth rates, both for June as well as the CB consumer confidence indicator for July and the API weekly crude oil stocks figure.
From Canada we get the GDP growth rate for May. Oil prices have rose somewhat in the past few days due to some minor tension as Saudi Arabia announced it will be ceasing its oil shipments through the Red Sea as some tankers had been attacked by Iranian forces as they claimed.