During the European morning, we get the Eurozone’s Final PMI figure for January and UK’s Services PMI for January which could move the GBP. Later on, we get the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for January. Also please note that today Mr. Jerome Powell is to be sworn in as chairman of the Fed and any possible hawkish remarks or headlines about the Fed having four rate hikes in 2018, could strengthen the USD.
As for the rest of the week, a heads up for RBA’s interest rate decision announcement during tomorrow’s Asian morning. Also, on Tuesday in the US session we get the unemployment rate for New Zealand for Q4. On Wednesday in the US session we get RBNZ’s interest rate decision and on Thursday during the European morning we get Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Last but not least, on Friday we get China’s CPI rate for January and Canada’s unemployment rate for January.
Hopes grow for inter-Korean talks as North Koreas ceremonial leader will visit South Korea this week. South Korean prime minister mentioned to US president that good momentum in inter-Korean relationships could continue. Trump on the other hand, agreed that North Koreas participation in the winter Olympics could result in “something good”. Overall, as inter-Korean relationships improve we could see the JPY strengthening as political instability for the region is slowly fading away.
USD/JPY experienced some bullish pressures on Friday, mostly due to the US Employment report, however surrendered some of its gains later on and during today’s Asian morning remaining well between the 111.05 resistance level and the 109.20 support line. We could see the pair continue to trade in a sideways manner with some bullish tone as the pair could be influenced by today’s incoming US financial data. Should the bulls take the driver’s seat we could see it breaking the 111.05 resistance line and aiming for the 112.20 resistance hurdle. On the other hand, should the bears take the reins we could see it breaking the 109.20 support level and aim for the 108.30 support zone.
German parties SPD, CDU and CSU neared forming a coalition as a deal was struck on the thorny issue of immigration. Also a deal was struck on the energy issue and the next issues to be discussed will be labour policy and health care. Discussions are to draw to a closure by Sunday and the final deal is expected to be set up for vote by SPD members. As discussions progress and more progress is made, we expect the EUR to strengthen as more political stability should emerge.
The EUR/USD moved in a sideways manner on Friday and during today’s Asian morning with some selling pressures, moving lower than the 1.2495 resistance level. We see the case for the pair to continue to trade in a sideways manner and selling pressures could increase as the financial data to be released today could prove neutral for the EUR and positive for the USD. Should the pair come under buying pressure we could see it breaking the 1.2495 resistance level and aim for the 1.2600 resistance barrier. On the other hand should it come under selling interest, it could break the 1.2355 support level and hover slightly below it.