RBA remains on hold

RBA decided to remain on hold as it was widely expected by the market and kept its interest rate at +1.50%. The accompanying statement had an upbeat tone with comments for inflation being likely to remain low for some time, a gradual pick up of inflation is expected and it should reach a bit above +2.0% in 2018. The statement also spotted as continuing source of uncertainty the outlook for household consumption. Specifically, it mentioned that household incomes are growing slowly and debt levels are high. AUD/USD was practically not influenced by the RBA decision indicative of the neutral effect as the market was expecting the outcome.

AUD/USD began to trade yesterday in a sideways manner with a bullish tone, however dropped heavily as the later on during the US session breaking the 0.790 support level. The pair could continue to trade with some bearish tone, however we see the case for the pair to stabilize somewhat later on as the Relative strength index is already below 30, possibly signaling an overcrowded short position. Should the bears continue to have the upper hand we could see it breaking the 0.7782 support level and aim for the 0.7683 support barrier. On the other hand should the bulls take the driver’s seat, we could see them drive the pair beyond the 0.7900 resistance level, aiming for the 0.8000 resistance hurdle.

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Economic highlights for today (2/5/2018)

During the European morning, we get the Eurozone’s Final PMI figure for January and UK’s Services PMI for January which could move the GBP. Later on, we get the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for January. Also please note that today Mr. Jerome Powell is to be sworn in as chairman of the Fed and any possible hawkish remarks or headlines about the Fed having four rate hikes in 2018, could strengthen the USD.

As for the rest of the week, a heads up for RBA’s interest rate decision announcement during tomorrow’s Asian morning. Also, on Tuesday in the US session we get the unemployment rate for New Zealand for Q4. On Wednesday in the US session we get RBNZ’s interest rate decision and on Thursday during the European morning we get Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Last but not least, on Friday we get China’s CPI rate for January and Canada’s unemployment rate for January.