The Oil world is awaiting for the OPEC and non-OPEC producers meeting on September the 23rd in Algiers, Algeria for the smoke to clear over the supply
matter that’s has been looming over Iran’s exclusion. The meeting is in place for the members to clarify how they can allocate supply increases
within their quota framework to counterbalance the loss of Iranian oil supply.
The Russian Energy minister state d that the event is set to cover many scenarios with the most probable one being an increase in supply from levels pre stated in June. He also confirmed a possible collaboration with the US which was confirmed in the past, but is not in place currently.
While Iran’s sanctions come into play on the 4th of November, it must be noted that Iran officials may not participate in the meeting at the end of September. It must be noted, according to Reuter’s research, Iran has increased Crude Oil exports above 2 million bpd successfully expanding its exports, in the past years. Reuters also stated that Iranian official energy advisors were optimistic that America’s intentions could not reduce the country’s oil trade to zero because of high demand levels in the market. Iran currently covers a respected amount of supply of Oil, but the US is making countries turn to other sources, pulling the plug on the Persian Oil market.
In the Middle East, official data confirmed that the Kingdom’s crude oil exports in July fell to 7.1 million barrels per day compared to 7.2 million bpd in June. The information was made public when the numbers were quoted on OPEC’s website. Moreover, yesterday Crude Oil prices rose on comments by Saudi Arabian officials stating the Kingdom is comfortable at prices around $80 per Crude Oil barrel. On the other hand, Russian Energy Minister
Alexander Novak revealed on Tuesday that the range of oil prices between $70 and $80 per barrel was only temporary and this was related to the sanctions, adding that the long-term price could move near
$50 per barrel. This is an unexpected statement and the drives behind this pricing scenario are unknown. The commodity followed the opposite directions on Wednesday amid a surprise climb in U.S. crude
stockpiles, pulling back from profits gained the previous day.
On other news, a Chinese oil company has bought 9.9 percent of shares in a joint venture in Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro confirmed on Tuesday. The president also added that Venezuela expected some $5
billion from China in order to form a collaboration to boost its crude output. Their aim is also to double production and be able to send a significant part of supply to the Chinese main Land. However, no correlation was made to the ongoing trade wars between the US and China. It could be a way for
China to cover its huge demand for the black gold, but also for better pricing.
Oil prices were seen strengthening on a weekly basis breaking both our $67.75 (S1) support level and the $68.76 (S2) support level, both now turned to resistances. However, today the commodity awaits the EIA Crude Oil weekly figure to be released, with a drawdown expected. We see the case for Crude oil to move with bullish tendencies should the forecast be realized.
If the bulls take over the Crude Oil market we could see it breaking the $
70.40 (R1) resistance level and move even higher towards the $
71.24 (R2) resistance area. If any evidence of over supply is released within the news, we may see a bearish sentiment overtake the commodity. In this case, Crude Oil could move downwards to the $69.61 (S1) support level and move
even lower towards the $68.75 (S2) support barrier.